Prior record: 3-1-0 across 4 since 2024. Most recent 2026, 0-0 in comp-apf-SPL. The present numbers are 1688 against 1473, and the model turns that into 74.3% / 18.2% / 7.5%.
From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +188 and -27. Played and finished 1-1. Neither figure is thin: 340 and 68 matches respectively sit behind them. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. Rating separation comes to 215 points. In absolute terms: Al-Ittihad FC 1.25/1.06, Al Kholood 0.73/1.27 on attack and defence. Higher rating: the home side. Most and least likely outcomes are 66.8 points apart. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 83.4% to 16.6%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Most likely single result is Al-Ittihad FC on 74.3%. Al-Ittihad FC is ahead on each half — 1.25 to 0.73 in attack, 1.06 to 1.27 in defence. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 9.7%. Someone wins 81.8% of the time by this model. The leading outcome clears the second by 56.1 points. The underlying goal expectation is 2.37 for Al-Ittihad FC, 1.04 for Al Kholood. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood drew 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah on 15 August 2026. Y. En Nesyri opened the scoring in the 43rd minute for Al-Ittihad FC, set up by A. Al Julaydan, to make it 1-0. J. Domingues levelled it 52 minutes into the game for Al Kholood, set up by S. Pinas, to make it 1-1. D. Pereira (58') was sent off. C. da Costa (21') and M. Al Shanqiti (66') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Ittihad FC 215 points stronger than Al Kholood. Al-Ittihad FC are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in Saudi Pro League 2025/26, AFC Champions League 2026/27 and Saudi Pro League 2026/27.