On record: 12 meetings from 2016, 24-11 on aggregate, 4 drawn. Their most recent was 2022, 2-1 in comp-apf-SPL. Currently 1919 against 1530 — a 85.7% / 13.3% / 1.0% split.
Most likely single result is Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 85.7%. Neither component contradicts the other: Al-Hilal Saudi FC leads 1.73-0.62 forward and 0.58-0.79 back. Between best and worst outcome there is 84.7 points of daylight. Reduced to one result that is 2-0. Attack/defence pairs: 1.73/0.58 and 0.62/0.79. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 93.2%. Goal expectation splits 2.03 to 0.49. 2-0 is the single most probable result at 16.6%, clear of 1-0 on 16.3%. Win-or-lose totals 86.7%; the draw takes the rest. The match finished 4-2. The home side is rated higher. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +419 and +30. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A 72.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Ratings sit 389 apart. Both figures rest on decent samples, 403 and 179 matches.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Faisaly FC 4-2 at Kingdom Arena, Riyadh on 14 August 2026. K. Benzema opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 19th minute for Al-Hilal Saudi FC to make it 1-0. Malcom added to the tally in the 26th minute for Al-Hilal Saudi FC to make it 2-0. R. Neves added to the tally from the penalty spot in the 28th minute for Al-Hilal Saudi FC to make it 3-0. A. Mendy got one back 59 minutes into the game for Al-Faisaly FC, set up by J. Seoane, to make it 1-3. T. Bongonda pulled one back 64 minutes into the game for Al-Faisaly FC, set up by C. Bassogog, to make it 2-3. R. Neves added to the tally from the penalty spot late on, in the 82nd minute for Al-Hilal Saudi FC to make it 4-2. A. Al Mogren (62') was booked. On current ratings the model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 85.7% in this pairing, and Al-Hilal Saudi FC won this one. Expected goals put the gap at 3.28 to 1.35.