On file: 24 previous meetings dating to 2012, 23-72 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-3 in comp-apf-QSL. Currently 1382 against 1689 — a 10.1% / 19.5% / 70.4% split.
Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -118 and +189. No scoreline stands out; 1-3 only leads on 7.0%. Ratings sit 307 apart. There is no trade-off to weigh: Al Sadd scores at the higher rate (1.82 to 0.90) and concedes at the lower (1.24 to 1.34). The away side is rated higher. Raw profiles are 0.90 and 1.34 against 1.82 and 1.24. Between best and worst outcome there is 60.3 points of daylight. A decisive result carries 80.5% against 19.5% for the draw. A 50.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Reduced to one result that is 1-3. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Top of the distribution: Al Sadd, 70.4%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 282 and 418 matches. Expected shares 19.9% against 80.1% on Elo. Expected goals come out at 1.67 to 3.30. Played and finished 3-6.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Al Sadd comfortably beat Al-Sailiya 6-3 at Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha on 10 September 2026. Anwar El Ghazi (39'), Kellian van der Kaap (49') and Abdelaziz Mitwali (86') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Al Sadd 307 points stronger than Al-Sailiya. On current ratings the model favours Al Sadd at 70.4% in this pairing, and Al Sadd won this one. On current ratings the model puts Al Sadd at around 3.3 goals in this pairing; they scored 6 here. Al-Sailiya's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats.