28 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 45-30. The latest was 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-QSL. The live ratings are 1483 and 1465, giving 49.2% / 25.1% / 25.7%.
Attack/defence pairs: 1.15/1.34 and 1.09/1.21. Higher rating: the home side. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 347 and 320 rated matches respectively. Al-Arabi SC sits 23.5 points above the next most likely result. Its rounded call is 2-1. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Elo expected shares: 61.7% and 38.3%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -17 and -35. Between best and worst outcome there is 24.1 points of daylight. 2-1 leads the scorelines at 7.5% — not a strong call. Goal expectation splits 2.06 to 1.96. The tie closed out 0-0. Top of the distribution: Al-Arabi SC, 49.2%. The model gives 74.9% to someone winning. Distance between the ratings: 18 points, narrow on this scale. One edge each: scoring to Al-Arabi SC (1.15 v 1.09), conceding to Qatar SC (1.21 v 1.34). Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Al-Arabi SC and Qatar SC could not be separated in a goalless draw on 12 September 2026. Abdulrasheed Ibrahim (89') was sent off. 8 players were booked, among them Pablo Sarabia (21'), Faïz Selemani (35'), Abdullah Maarafiya (46'), Niall Mason (49'), Michael Olunga (66') and Ali Saoudi (80'). Al-Arabi SC are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form.