Prior record: 2-2-2 across 6 since 2014. Most recent 2026, 0-2 in comp-apf-QSL. Today those sides rate 1490 and 1417, 73 apart, which resolves to 57.3% / 23.2% / 19.5%.
Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -10 and -83. First to second is a 34.1-point step, Al Shamal over the draw. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. 76.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Neither figure is thin: 136 and 142 matches respectively sit behind them. Between best and worst outcome there is 37.8 points of daylight. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 9.1%. Al Shamal is ahead on each half — 1.14 to 0.98 in attack, 1.11 to 1.28 in defence. Most likely single result is Al Shamal on 57.3%. Raw profiles are 1.14 and 1.11 against 0.98 and 1.28. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Final score: 4-2. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. On expected goals the model has it 2.16 against 1.46. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 68.9% to 31.1%.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Al Shamal beat Al Shahaniya 4-2 on 4 September 2026. Abdelkarim Hassan opened the scoring in the 25th minute for Al Shamal to make it 1-0. Francesco Antonucci levelled it from the penalty spot 49 minutes into the game for Al Shahaniya to make it 1-1. Abdoulaye Traore put Al Shahaniya in front 59 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Mowafak Awad levelled it 80 minutes into the game for Al Shamal, set up by Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane, to make it 2-2. Al Shamal regained the lead through Mowafak Awad late on, in the 90th minute, set up by Abdullah Abdulsalam, to make it 3-2. Baghdad Bounedjah added to the tally in the 100th minute for Al Shamal, set up by Fahad Waad, to make it 4-2. Sven van Beek (72') was sent off. Ali Assadalla (15'), Musab Kheder (61'), Pablo Mari (84') and Mowafak Awad (97') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Al Shamal are 73 points stronger than Al Shahaniya. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model favours Al Shamal at 57.3% in this pairing, and Al Shamal won this one. Al Shamal are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Qatar Stars League 2025/26, Qatar Stars League 2026/27 and AFC Champions League 2026/27.