24 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 33-35. The latest was 2026, 2-1 in comp-apf-QSL. The present numbers are 1382 against 1483, and the model turns that into 31.4% / 26.7% / 41.9%.
The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. By expected share of the points: 44.8% and 55.2%. The model's preferred outcome is Al-Arabi SC at 41.9%. The single-scoreline output is 1-2. Result on the day: 0-2. Outcomes span 15.2 points. The away side is rated higher. There is no trade-off to weigh: Al-Arabi SC scores at the higher rate (1.15 to 0.90) and concedes at the lower (1.34 to 1.34). Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. Attack/defence pairs: 0.90/1.34 and 1.15/1.34. Expected goals 1.79-2.07. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 8.1%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -118 and -17. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 282 and 347 rated matches respectively. Al-Arabi SC sits 10.5 points above the next most likely result. The model gives 73.3% to someone winning. Rating separation comes to 101 points.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Al-Arabi SC beat Al-Sailiya 2-0 at Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha on 3 September 2026. Youssef snana opened the scoring in the 45th minute for Al-Arabi SC, set up by Rodrigo Sánchez Rodríguez, to make it 1-0. Issa Laye added to the tally 77 minutes into the game for Al-Arabi SC, set up by Oussama Tannane, to make it 2-0. Hadi Ali Tabasideh (48'), Raoul Danzabe Sanda (73') and Marwan Sherif Hassan (78') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Arabi SC 101 points stronger than Al-Sailiya. Al-Sailiya's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats. Al-Arabi SC are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form.