On record: 26 meetings from 2011, 36-42 on aggregate, 4 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-3 in comp-apf-QSL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1445 and 1465 — 20 points — for a 43.3% / 26.4% / 30.3% split.
A 16.9-point range top to bottom. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The scoreline spread is even — 2-2 on 7.2% leads, but only just. Expected goals 2.23-2.08. A decisive result carries 73.6% against 26.4% for the draw. Al Ahli Doha holds a 13.0-point edge on the next outcome. Raw profiles are 1.24 and 1.42 against 1.09 and 1.21. Rounded, that is 2-2. Elo expected shares: 56.4% and 43.6%. The match finished 1-0. Top of the distribution: Al Ahli Doha, 43.3%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 324 and 320 matches. The higher rating belongs to the away side. One edge each: scoring to Al Ahli Doha (1.24 v 1.09), conceding to Qatar SC (1.21 v 1.42). Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -55 and -35. Ratings sit 20 apart.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Al Ahli Doha edged past Qatar SC 1-0 at Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha on 3 September 2026. Younis Hussein Abdelrahman opened the scoring late on, in the 82nd minute for Al Ahli Doha to make it 1-0. Eisa Palangi (12') was sent off. Bartolomé Márquez López (10') and Joao Pedro (45') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Qatar SC just 20 rating points ahead of Al Ahli Doha, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them.