10 meetings sit in the record, first in 2014, aggregate 9-12. The latest was 2026, 2-3 in comp-apf-QSL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1417 and 1382 — 35 points — for a 51.7% / 24.5% / 23.8% split.
Goal expectation splits 1.94 to 1.56. The model gives 75.5% to someone winning. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -83 and -118. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 9.1%. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Both components point the same way, toward Al Shahaniya: 0.98 to 0.90 going forward, 1.28 to 1.34 going back. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The model's preferred outcome is Al Shahaniya at 51.7%. Its point estimate is 1-1. Between best and worst outcome there is 27.9 points of daylight. The four component numbers read 0.98, 1.28, 0.90, 1.34. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 142 and 282 matches. A 35-point spread sits between the two figures. By expected share of the points: 64.0% and 36.0%. Al Shahaniya holds a 27.2-point edge on the next outcome. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Result on the day: 3-2.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.