On record: 12 meetings from 2014, 23-13 on aggregate, 3 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-QSL. History aside, the live ratings of 1464 and 1490 drive a 42.4% / 26.6% / 31.0% distribution.
Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -36 and -10. The higher-rated side expects 44.4% of the points; the other side 55.6%. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 26 points. Win-or-lose totals 73.4%; the draw takes the rest. On expected goals the model has it 1.68 against 2.32. Al-Gharafa carries the largest share, 42.4%. The ratings draw on 378 and 136 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. As a single number the model says 1-2. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Between best and worst outcome there is 15.8 points of daylight. The away side is rated higher. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. The match finished 1-3. The four component numbers read 1.02, 1.51, 1.14, 1.11. 1-2 leads the scorelines at 8.3% — not a strong call. A 11.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. There is no trade-off to weigh: Al Shamal scores at the higher rate (1.14 to 1.02) and concedes at the lower (1.11 to 1.51).
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Al Shamal beat Al-Gharafa 3-1 on 27 August 2026. F. Diaz opened the scoring 52 minutes into the game for Al-Gharafa, set up by A. Surag, to make it 1-0. O. Mohamed levelled it 56 minutes into the game for Al Shamal to make it 1-1. A. Asad put Al Shamal in front in the 91st minute, set up by O. Mohamed, to make it 2-1. B. Bounedjah added to the tally in the 98th minute for Al Shamal, set up by O. Mohamed, to make it 3-1. A. Hassan (25'), A. Al Saeed (25'), A. Collado (31'), F. Coman (55'), O. Mohamed (79') and M. Awad (94') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. Al Shamal are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Qatar Stars League 2025/26, Qatar Stars League 2026/27 and AFC Champions League 2026/27.