On record: 12 meetings from 2014, 25-15 on aggregate, 2 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-2 in comp-apf-QSL. Against that, current ratings read 1483 and 1490, a 7-point margin, and the model splits the tie 45.4% / 26.0% / 28.7%.
The tie closed out 2-2. Elo expected shares: 58.3% and 41.7%. The scoreline spread is even — 1-2 on 7.7% leads, but only just. Win-or-lose totals 74.1%; the draw takes the rest. 7 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Al-Arabi SC has the better scoring rate (1.15) and Al Shamal the better defensive one (1.11). Higher rating: the away side. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -17 and -10. Most likely single result is Al-Arabi SC on 45.4%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 347 and 136 matches. Expected goals come out at 1.89 to 2.05. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Al-Arabi SC leads the distribution by 16.7 points over Al Shamal. A 19.4-point range top to bottom. Raw profiles are 1.15 and 1.34 against 1.14 and 1.11.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Al-Arabi SC and Al Shamal drew 2-2 on 21 August 2026. Al-Arabi SC are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. Al Shamal are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Qatar Stars League 2025/26, Qatar Stars League 2026/27 and AFC Champions League 2026/27.