On record: 22 meetings from 2013, 22-63 on aggregate, 3 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-2 in Süper Lig. The present numbers are 1556 against 1842, and the model turns that into 11.8% / 20.3% / 68.0%.
The two ratings differ by 286 points. By expected share of the points: 21.9% and 78.1%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Fenerbahçe is ahead on each half — 1.73 to 1.11 in attack, 0.92 to 1.21 in defence. Someone wins 79.8% of the time by this model. Top of the distribution: Fenerbahçe, 68.0%. Outcomes span 56.2 points. Expected goals 1.52-2.82. The tie closed out 0-3. Versus the 1500 seed: +56 and +342. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Raw profiles are 1.11 and 1.21 against 1.73 and 0.92. The scoreline spread is even — 1-2 on 7.9% leads, but only just. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. The away side is rated higher. The ratings draw on 390 and 554 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. First to second is a 47.7-point step, Fenerbahçe over the draw.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Rizespor: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; six goals scored, six conceded. Latest: a 2-2 draw away to Göztepe on 20 September.
Playing away from home against Göztepe (Süper Lig), Rizespor finished 2-2 on 20 September. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 12 September: Rizespor won 2-0 against Eyüpspor away from home in Süper Lig, scoring two goals and allowing zero. Against Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Rizespor scored zero and conceded one on 7 September; the at home result was 0-1. Rizespor's away from home game on 29 August (Süper Lig) ended 2-1 against Gaziantep FK, with two goals for and one against. On 22 August, Samsunspor faced Rizespor in Süper Lig: Rizespor lost 0-2 at home, having scored zero and conceded two.
Fenerbahçe's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 15 scored and 4 conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Latest: an 8-0 win at home to Eyüpspor on 20 September.
Fenerbahçe hosted Eyüpspor on 20 September (Süper Lig) and won 8-0; their goals totalled eight, compared with zero conceded. Gaziantep FK hosted Fenerbahçe (Süper Lig) on 14 September. For Fenerbahçe, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 1-2 was Fenerbahçe's result against Beşiktaş on 5 September (Süper Lig), playing at home; Fenerbahçe lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 30 August fixture (Süper Lig) paired Fenerbahçe with Samsunspor. Fenerbahçe won 2-0 away from home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Konyaspor (Süper Lig), Fenerbahçe finished 4-2 on 22 August. Their score comprised four goals, against two from the opposition.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-2 draw at Fenerbahçe on 17 April and a 5-2 away win for Fenerbahçe on 23 November 2025.
After the match
Fenerbahçe comfortably beat Rizespor 3-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize on 10 October 2026. M. Asensio opened the scoring inside the first 12 minutes for Fenerbahçe, set up by K. Akturkoglu, to make it 1-0. I. Kahveci added to the tally late on, in the 83rd minute for Fenerbahçe, set up by O. Aydin, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Fenerbahçe extended the lead through O. Aydin late on, in the 87th minute, set up by R. Lukaku, to make it 3-0. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Fenerbahçe won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 68%. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.43 to 0.82. Rizespor: four substitutions. five changes were recorded for Fenerbahçe. Fenerbahçe finished with a clean sheet.