Prior record: 16-5-7 across 28 since 2012. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in Süper Lig. Today those sides rate 1515 and 1520, 5 apart, which resolves to 45.5% / 25.9% / 28.6%.
By expected share of the points: 58.5% and 41.5%. The away side is rated higher. Versus the 1500 seed: +15 and +20. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.9%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 13 and 494 matches. On expected goals the model has it 1.66 against 1.39. The four component numbers read 1.00, 1.21, 0.85, 1.12. 74.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The two halves pull apart — Galatasaray better going forward at 1.00, Kasımpaşa tighter at the back on 1.12. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Spread across the three results is 19.6 points. The two ratings differ by 5 points. The match finished 3-1. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The model's preferred outcome is Galatasaray at 45.5%. A 16.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Galatasaray: three wins and two defeats over five games; eight goals scored, 11 conceded. Latest: a 4-0 defeat away to Trabzonspor on 19 September.
0-4 was Galatasaray's result against Trabzonspor on 19 September (Süper Lig), playing away from home; Galatasaray lost, with zero scored to four conceded. The 13 September fixture (Süper Lig) paired Galatasaray with Kocaelispor. Galatasaray won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Sporting CP (Champions League), Galatasaray finished 1-3 on 9 September. Their score comprised one goal, against three from the opposition. 4 September: Galatasaray won 3-2 against Başakşehir away from home in Süper Lig, scoring three goals and allowing two. Against Göztepe in Süper Lig, Galatasaray scored three and conceded two on 29 August; the at home result was 3-2.
Kasımpaşa were unbeaten in their last five games, with two wins and three draws, scoring six goals and conceding four. On 18 September, Kasımpaşa recorded a 0-0 draw hosting Konyaspor.
18 September: Kasımpaşa drew 0-0 against Konyaspor at home in Süper Lig, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Gençlerbirliği S.K. in Süper Lig, Kasımpaşa scored two and conceded one on 13 September; the away from home result was 2-1. Kasımpaşa's at home game on 6 September (Süper Lig) ended 2-2 against Amed, with two goals for and two against. On 30 August, Başakşehir faced Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig: Kasımpaşa drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. Süper Lig, 22 August brought an away meeting with Çorum FK; Kasımpaşa won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-0 home win for Kasımpaşa on 17 May and a 3-0 home win for Galatasaray on 21 December 2025.
After the match
Galatasaray beat Kasımpaşa 3-1 on 9 October 2026. A. Bardakci opened the scoring in the 45th minute for Galatasaray, set up by A. Batrakov, to make it 1-0. J. Rak-Sakyi levelled it 68 minutes into the game for Kasımpaşa to make it 1-1. Galatasaray regained the lead through B. Yilmaz late on, in the 90th minute to make it 2-1. M. Lemina added to the tally in the 96th minute for Galatasaray, set up by V. Osimhen, to make it 3-1. L. Torreira (65') was sent off. R. Leao (3'), E. Mendes (24'), K. Demirbay (28'), D. Sanchez (40'), A. Kol (51') and A. Baldursson (56') were booked. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Expected goals put the gap at 2.18 to 0.59. Galatasaray picked up two yellow cards and one red card. Galatasaray: five substitutions. Kasımpaşa picked up four yellow cards. Kasımpaşa: four substitutions.