On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 3-2 on goals. Last time: 2026, 3-0 in comp-apf-TSL. History aside, the live ratings of 1486 and 1485 drive a 46.5% / 25.7% / 27.8% distribution.
Expected goals come out at 1.04 to 1.01. The two halves pull apart — Gaziantep FK better going forward at 0.88, Kocaelispor tighter at the back on 0.85. A 20.8-point range top to bottom. Top of the distribution: Kocaelispor, 46.5%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 34 and 256 matches. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The leading outcome clears the second by 18.7 points. The rating gap itself is 1 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. It ended 2-0. By expected share of the points: 59.4% and 40.6%. Win-or-lose totals 74.3%; the draw takes the rest. The higher rating belongs to the home side. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 13.5%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -14 and -15. The four component numbers read 0.56, 0.85, 0.88, 1.26.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.