The head-to-head counts 12 recorded meetings since 2018: 6 to Göztepe, 5 to Rizespor, 1 drawn, 22-21 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 3-1 in comp-apf-TSL. Today those sides rate 1613 and 1556, 57 apart, which resolves to 55.0% / 23.7% / 21.3%.
The rating gap itself is 57 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Higher rating: the home side. The higher-rated side expects 66.9% of the points; the other side 33.1%. The leading outcome clears the second by 31.3 points. The distribution runs from 55.0% down to 21.3%. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.8%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 250 and 390 matches. Top of the distribution: Göztepe, 55.0%. Each side owns one half of the argument — Rizespor the scoring rate at 1.11, Göztepe the conceding rate at 0.93. Attack/defence pairs: 0.94/0.93 and 1.11/1.21. Versus the 1500 seed: +113 and +56. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The xG line reads 1.69 to 1.39. 76.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Rounded, that is 1-1. It ended 2-2. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Göztepe and Rizespor drew 2-2 on 20 September 2026. A. Kurtulan (16'), A. Matos (18'), Rhaldney (69'), B. Boke (79'), T. Altikardes (85') and (90') were booked.