The head-to-head counts 4 recorded meetings since 2024: 2 to Fenerbahçe, 0 to Eyüpspor, 2 drawn, 9-5 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 3-3 in comp-apf-TSL. The live ratings are 1842 and 1521, giving 82.8% / 15.0% / 2.2%.
As a single number the model says 2-1. Fenerbahçe sits 67.8 points above the next most likely result. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +342 and +21. Fenerbahçe carries the largest share, 82.8%. A decisive result carries 85.0% against 15.0% for the draw. The tie closed out 8-0. Both figures rest on decent samples, 554 and 70 matches. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. In absolute terms: Fenerbahçe 1.73/0.92, Eyüpspor 0.94/1.05 on attack and defence. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. The underlying goal expectation is 2.69 for Fenerbahçe, 1.17 for Eyüpspor. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 8.9%. Both components point the same way, toward Fenerbahçe: 1.73 to 0.94 going forward, 0.92 to 1.05 going back. 321 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. The higher rating expects 90.2% of the points, the lower 9.8%.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Fenerbahçe overwhelmed Eyüpspor 8-0 on 20 September 2026. M. Greenwood opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 4 minutes for Fenerbahçe to make it 1-0. V. Muriqi added to the tally inside the first 7 minutes for Fenerbahçe, set up by K. Akturkoglu, to make it 2-0. V. Muriqi added to the tally in the 21st minute for Fenerbahçe to make it 3-0. M. Guendouzi added to the tally in the 38th minute for Fenerbahçe, set up by I. Kahveci, to make it 4-0. I. Kahveci added to the tally 46 minutes into the game for Fenerbahçe, set up by M. Greenwood, to make it 5-0. V. Muriqi added to the tally 47 minutes into the game for Fenerbahçe, set up by A. Brown, to make it 6-0. V. Muriqi added to the tally 55 minutes into the game for Fenerbahçe to make it 7-0. M. Greenwood added to the tally 80 minutes into the game for Fenerbahçe, set up by O. Aydin, to make it 8-0. On current ratings the model favours Fenerbahçe at 82.8% in this pairing, and Fenerbahçe won this one. On current ratings the model puts Fenerbahçe at around 2.69 goals in this pairing; they scored 8 here. Expected goals put the gap at 3.77 to 0.57.