Samsunspor enters 170 points clear of Erzurumspor FK on rating, which the model reads as 23.1% / 24.3% / 52.6%.
The away side is rated higher. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 9.6%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -41 and +129. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 74 and 142 matches. Spread across the three results is 29.5 points. 52.6% goes to Samsunspor, the model's lean. Point estimate: 1-1. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Scorelines above 8%: 2. There is no trade-off to weigh: Samsunspor scores at the higher rate (1.12 to 0.93) and concedes at the lower (1.05 to 1.27). The model gives 75.7% to someone winning. The underlying goal expectation is 1.45 for Erzurumspor FK, 1.91 for Samsunspor. A 170-point difference on the rating scale. Elo expected shares: 35.3% and 64.7%. Final score: 1-0. Raw profiles are 0.93 and 1.27 against 1.12 and 1.05. The gap between first and second outcome is 28.3 points, Samsunspor ahead of the draw.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Erzurumspor FK edged past Samsunspor 1-0 on 20 September 2026. M. Cardoso (18') and E. Owusu (33') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Samsunspor clearly the stronger side, by 170 rating points over Erzurumspor FK, even though it was Erzurumspor FK who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Erzurumspor FK only a 23.1% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Samsunspor's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0 to 0.21.