Prior record: 7-7-12 across 26 since 2013. Most recent 2026, 2-1 in comp-apf-TSL. History aside, the live ratings of 1548 and 1707 drive a 24.5% / 24.7% / 50.8% distribution.
Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.7%. Trabzonspor sits 26.1 points above the next most likely result. A 26.3-point range top to bottom. The two ratings differ by 159 points. Both components point the same way, toward Trabzonspor: 1.24 to 0.94 going forward, 0.93 to 1.06 going back. The four component numbers read 0.94, 1.06, 1.24, 0.93. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.30 and 1.77. The ratings draw on 460 and 544 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +48 and +207. The model's preferred outcome is Trabzonspor at 50.8%. Final score: 1-0. 75.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Elo expected shares: 36.8% and 63.2%.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Konyaspor edged past Trabzonspor 1-0 on 12 September 2026. R. Toth opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for Konyaspor, set up by D. Goncalves, to make it 1-0. D. Turuc (47'), A. Simsir (58'), M. Eskihellac (59'), A. Onana (83') and (86') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Trabzonspor clearly the stronger side, by 159 rating points over Konyaspor, even though it was Konyaspor who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Konyaspor only a 24.5% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.