On file: 18 previous meetings dating to 2012, 23-24 on goals. Last time: 2026, 3-2 in comp-apf-TSL. Today those sides rate 1484 and 1520, 36 apart, which resolves to 40.6% / 27.0% / 32.4%.
Reduced to one result that is 1-1. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -16 and +20. First to second is a 8.2-point step, Gençlerbirliği S.K. over Kasımpaşa. Expected goals sit at 1.35 against 1.20. The ratings draw on 346 and 494 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Honours split: 0.85 forward for Kasımpaşa, 1.04 back for Gençlerbirliği S.K. The three results cover 13.6 points. 36 points of rating separation. Top of the distribution: Gençlerbirliği S.K., 40.6%. 73.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Expected shares 54.2% against 45.8% on Elo. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Final score: 1-2. Higher rating: the away side. The four component numbers read 0.81, 1.04, 0.85, 1.12. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.6%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Kasımpaşa edged past Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-1 on 13 September 2026. E. Mendes (47'), O. Diabate (54') and M. Diyadin (55') were booked. Kasımpaşa are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.35 to 0.66.