Prior record: 0-1-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-TSL. The live ratings are 1865 and 1486, giving 85.3% / 13.7% / 1.0%.
A 379-point spread sits between the two figures. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Galatasaray holds a 71.6-point edge on the next outcome. 85.3% goes to Galatasaray, the model's lean. Its rounded call is 2-0. Win-or-lose totals 86.3%; the draw takes the rest. Attack/defence pairs: 1.63/0.76 and 0.56/0.85. xG: 2.07 to 0.58. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +365 and -14. The tie closed out 1-0. Outcomes span 84.3 points. The distribution peaks at 2-0, 15.2%, with 1-0 behind it at 14.7%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 592 and 34 matches. Neither component contradicts the other: Galatasaray leads 1.63-0.56 forward and 0.76-0.85 back. Galatasaray's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 92.8%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Galatasaray edged past Kocaelispor 1-0 on 13 September 2026. A. Bardakci opened the scoring 71 minutes into the game for Galatasaray, set up by A. Batrakov, to make it 1-0. S. Inan (16'), A. Dijksteel (22'), D. Gul (56') and A. Bardakci (72') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Galatasaray 379 points stronger than Kocaelispor. On current ratings the model favours Galatasaray at 85.3% in this pairing, and Galatasaray won this one. Expected goals put the gap at 2.21 to 0.62. Galatasaray won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.