On record: 4 meetings from 2018, 12-4 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2021, 4-2 in comp-apf-TSL. The live ratings are 1694 and 1459, giving 76.2% / 17.5% / 6.3%.
Expected shares 84.9% against 15.1% on Elo. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Top of the distribution: Beşiktaş, 76.2%. The model gives 82.5% to someone winning. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Ratings sit 235 apart. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +194 and -41. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1. In absolute terms: Beşiktaş 1.25/0.83, Erzurumspor FK 0.93/1.27 on attack and defence. Result on the day: 3-0. The gap between first and second outcome is 58.7 points, Beşiktaş ahead of the draw. Neither figure is thin: 559 and 74 matches respectively sit behind them. Expected goals sit at 2.36 against 1.04. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Both components point the same way, toward Beşiktaş: 1.25 to 0.93 going forward, 0.83 to 1.27 going back. Spread across the three results is 69.9 points. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 9.7%.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Beşiktaş comfortably beat Erzurumspor FK 3-0 on 11 September 2026. O. Kokcu (15'), K. Ouattara (26') and S. Ozcan (66') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Beşiktaş 235 points stronger than Erzurumspor FK. On current ratings the model favours Beşiktaş at 76.2% in this pairing, and Beşiktaş won this one.