14 meetings sit in the record, first in 2017, aggregate 20-18. The latest was 2026, 2-2 in comp-apf-TSL. Currently 1537 against 1613 — a 34.6% / 27.6% / 37.8% split.
Raw profiles are 0.97 and 0.95 against 0.94 and 0.93. As a single number the model says 1-1. Result on the day: 2-2. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +37 and +113. By expected share of the points: 48.4% and 51.6%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.34 and 1.21. 76 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. The three outcomes sit within 10.2 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.7%. Scorelines above 8%: 4. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Both figures rest on decent samples, 358 and 250 matches. 72.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. 37.8% goes to Göztepe, the model's lean. On components there is almost nothing in it: 0.97 to 0.94 forward, 0.95 to 0.93 back. The away side is rated higher. A 3.2-point gap between the top two is inside the noise.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Alanyaspor and Göztepe drew 2-2 on 12 September 2026. Rhaldney opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Göztepe, set up by A. Antunes, to make it 1-0. P. Fernandes levelled it 63 minutes into the game for Alanyaspor, set up by Bikoue, to make it 1-1. Göztepe regained the lead through Juan from the penalty spot 73 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. G. Makouta levelled it 75 minutes into the game for Alanyaspor, set up by I. Hagi, to make it 2-2. Juan (22'), I. Hagi (65'), N. Lima (72'), A. Kurtulan (82') and J. Pereira (84') were booked.