The head-to-head counts 10 recorded meetings since 2019: 3 to Göztepe, 2 to Gaziantep FK, 5 drawn, 12-12 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 2-1 in comp-apf-TSL. Today those sides rate 1613 and 1485, 128 apart, which resolves to 64.6% / 21.2% / 14.1%.
Result on the day: 2-4. Göztepe's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 75.2%. 78.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Both figures rest on decent samples, 250 and 256 matches. First to second is a 43.4-point step, Göztepe over the draw. 128 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Göztepe holds both halves of the profile — 0.94 against 0.88 for scoring, 0.93 against 1.26 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Between best and worst outcome there is 50.5 points of daylight. Scorelines above 8%: 4. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Raw profiles are 0.94 and 0.93 against 0.88 and 1.26. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +113 and -15. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.1%. Its point estimate is 1-1. Top of the distribution: Göztepe, 64.6%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Gaziantep FK beat Göztepe 4-2 on 7 September 2026. Ogun Bayrak (72') was sent off. Arda Kurtulan (55'), Rhaldney Norberto Simiao Gomez (66'), Trivante Stewart (76'), Sinclair Armstrong (79') and Drissa Camara (91') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Göztepe clearly the stronger side, by 128 rating points over Gaziantep FK, even though it was Gaziantep FK who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Gaziantep FK only a 14.1% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. On current ratings the model puts Gaziantep FK at around 1.1 goals in this pairing; they scored 4 here.