32 meetings sit in the record, first in 2011, aggregate 51-44. The latest was 2026, 1-0 in comp-apf-TSL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1842 and 1694 — 148 points — for a 67.1% / 20.5% / 12.4% split.
Most and least likely outcomes are 54.7 points apart. The higher rating expects 77.3% of the points, the lower 22.7%. The underlying goal expectation is 2.15 for Fenerbahçe, 1.55 for Beşiktaş. The split is one apiece: Fenerbahçe leads the attacking rate on 1.73, Beşiktaş the defensive on 0.83. The higher rating belongs to the home side. 79.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The gap between first and second outcome is 46.6 points, Fenerbahçe ahead of the draw. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 8.8%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The match finished 1-2. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. A 148-point spread sits between the two figures. With 554 and 559 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +342 and +194. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Beşiktaş edged past Fenerbahçe 2-1 on 5 September 2026. Milan Škriniar opened the scoring in the 26th minute for Fenerbahçe to make it 1-0. Ridvan Yilmaz levelled it in the 38th minute for Beşiktaş, set up by Leandro Trossard, to make it 1-1. Dušan Vlahović put Beşiktaş in front 73 minutes into the game, set up by Orkun Kökçü, to make it 2-1. 7 players were booked, among them Emirhan Topçu (45'), Mason Greenwood (46'), Milan Škriniar (52'), Ederson Santana de Moraes (52'), Dušan Vlahović (53') and Václav Černý (59'). On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Beşiktaş only a 12.4% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.