4 meetings sit in the record, first in 2018, aggregate 4-9. The latest was 2021, 1-2 in comp-apf-TSL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1459 and 1548 — 89 points — for a 32.9% / 27.1% / 40.0% split.
The four component numbers read 0.93, 1.27, 0.94, 1.06. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.46 and 1.61. The model's preferred outcome is Konyaspor at 40.0%. A 89-point spread sits between the two figures. Most and least likely outcomes are 12.9 points apart. Konyaspor sits 7.1 points above the next most likely result. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 10.9%. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Higher rating: the away side. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Win-or-lose totals 72.9%; the draw takes the rest. Neither component contradicts the other: Konyaspor leads 0.94-0.93 forward and 1.06-1.27 back. Versus the 1500 seed: -41 and +48. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 74 and 460 rated matches respectively. The higher-rated side expects 53.4% of the points; the other side 46.6%. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Final score: 1-0.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Erzurumspor FK edged past Konyaspor 1-0 on 5 September 2026. Eren Tozlu opened the scoring in the 17th minute for Erzurumspor FK, set up by Guram Giorbelidze, to make it 1-0. Rayyan Baniya (26'), Marko Jevtović (47') and Jackson Muleka (47') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Konyaspor slightly the stronger side, by 89 rating points over Erzurumspor FK, even though it was Erzurumspor FK who won this one. Erzurumspor FK won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 4 meetings without a win.