Prior record: 6-6-16 across 28 since 2011. Most recent 2026, 0-3 in comp-apf-TSL. The present numbers are 1702 against 1865, and the model turns that into 23.9% / 24.6% / 51.5%.
Its point estimate is 1-1. A 163-point difference on the rating scale. Both components point the same way, toward Galatasaray: 1.63 to 1.34 going forward, 0.76 to 0.80 going back. Attack/defence pairs: 1.34/0.80 and 1.63/0.76. A decisive result carries 75.4% against 24.6% for the draw. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.1%. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Neither figure is thin: 512 and 592 matches respectively sit behind them. Between best and worst outcome there is 27.6 points of daylight. A 26.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Expected shares 36.3% against 63.7% on Elo. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +202 and +365. xG: 1.52 to 1.75. Higher rating: the away side. The model's preferred outcome is Galatasaray at 51.5%. Played and finished 2-3. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Galatasaray edged past Başakşehir 3-2 on 4 September 2026. Victor Osimhen opened the scoring in the 16th minute for Galatasaray, set up by Lucas Torreira, to make it 1-0. Eldor Shomurodov levelled it from the penalty spot 66 minutes into the game for Başakşehir to make it 1-1. Galatasaray regained the lead through Lucas Torreira 71 minutes into the game, set up by Ismail Jakobs, to make it 2-1. Davinson Sánchez (an own goal) levelled it 76 minutes into the game for Başakşehir to make it 2-2. Galatasaray regained the lead through Gabriel late on, in the 90th minute to make it 3-2. Umut Bozok (79') was sent off. Christopher Operi (37'), Roland Sallai (63'), Davinson Sánchez (67'), Okan Buruk (67'), Rafael Leão (78') and Saba Kharebashvili (89') were booked.