Across 12 recorded meetings back to 2019 the split is 6-1-5 in Gaziantep FK's favour on wins, 18-18 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-2 in comp-apf-TSL. Today those sides rate 1485 and 1556, 71 apart, which resolves to 35.2% / 27.8% / 37.0%.
Point estimate: 1-1. Most likely single result is Rizespor on 37.0%. The xG line reads 1.57 to 1.89. Only 1.8 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. Raw profiles are 0.88 and 1.26 against 1.11 and 1.21. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Rizespor holds both halves of the profile — 1.11 against 0.88 for scoring, 1.21 against 1.26 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. A 9.2-point range covers every outcome here. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 9.3%. Final score: 1-2. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -15 and +56. Behind them are 256 and 390 rated matches. 72.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 49.1% to 50.9%.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Rizespor edged past Gaziantep FK 2-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep on 29 August 2026. Attila Mocsi (60') and Enver Kulasin (72') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Rizespor are 71 points stronger than Gaziantep FK.