Across 26 recorded meetings back to 2012 the split is 17-4-5 in Başakşehir's favour on wins, 58-31 on goals. The last was 2026, 4-0 in comp-apf-TSL. History aside, the live ratings of 1702 and 1520 drive a 70.8% / 19.4% / 9.8% distribution.
These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-0 at 10.7%. With 512 and 494 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Elo expected shares: 80.6% and 19.4%. Başakşehir holds both halves of the profile — 1.34 against 0.85 for scoring, 0.80 against 1.12 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Attack/defence pairs: 1.34/0.80 and 0.85/1.12. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A 182-point spread sits between the two figures. The tie closed out 1-1. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.23 and 0.92. The three results cover 61.0 points. The model's preferred outcome is Başakşehir at 70.8%. First to second is a 51.4-point step, Başakşehir over the draw. The home side is rated higher. 80.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa drew 1-1 on 30 August 2026. E. Shomurodov opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Başakşehir, set up by U. Bozok, to make it 1-0. F. Diabate levelled it late on, in the 81st minute for Kasımpaşa, set up by A. Benedyczak, to make it 1-1. J. Opoku (3'), O. Kemen (13') and C. Winck (55') were booked. Kasımpaşa are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form.