Across 26 recorded meetings back to 2013 the split is 15-4-7 in Fenerbahçe's favour on wins, 52-27 on goals. The last was 2026, 3-0 in comp-apf-TSL. Today those sides rate 1842 and 1548, 294 apart, which resolves to 81.1% / 15.4% / 3.5%.
On the Elo curve, expected shares run 88.8% to 11.2%. The model's preferred outcome is Fenerbahçe at 81.1%. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Rounded, that is 2-1. The two ratings differ by 294 points. A 77.6-point range top to bottom. Fenerbahçe sits 65.7 points above the next most likely result. xG: 2.74 to 1.17. Win-or-lose totals 84.6%; the draw takes the rest. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 8.8%. Both components point the same way, toward Fenerbahçe: 1.73 to 0.94 going forward, 0.92 to 1.06 going back. The home side is rated higher. Result on the day: 4-2. The ratings draw on 554 and 460 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The four component numbers read 1.73, 0.92, 0.94, 1.06. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +342 and +48. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Fenerbahçe beat Konyaspor 4-2 on 22 August 2026. A. Demirbag (49'), D. Turuc (49') and E. Bardhi (61') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Fenerbahçe at 81.1% in this pairing, and Fenerbahçe won this one.