On record: 22 meetings from 2013, 29-31 on aggregate, 9 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-3 in comp-apf-TSL. The present numbers are 1548 against 1556, and the model turns that into 45.1% / 26.0% / 28.9%.
The model's expected-goals figures are 1.69 and 1.60. With 460 and 390 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Its rounded call is 1-1. Top of the distribution: Konyaspor, 45.1%. The four component numbers read 0.94, 1.06, 1.11, 1.21. Rizespor's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 41.9%. A decisive result carries 74.0% against 26.0% for the draw. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Outcomes span 19.1 points. Rating separation comes to 8 points. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. First to second is a 16.2-point step, Konyaspor over Rizespor. Neither side holds both halves — Rizespor scores at 1.11, Konyaspor concedes at 1.06. Played and finished 0-1. Versus the 1500 seed: +48 and +56. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.1% — not a strong call.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Rizespor edged past Konyaspor 1-0 on 15 August 2026. Q. Laci (11'), A. Mebude (70') and A. Sowe (79') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Rizespor only a 28.9% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.