On file: 28 previous meetings dating to 2012, 39-47 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-2 in comp-apf-TSL. Against that, current ratings read 1520 and 1707, a 187-point margin, and the model splits the tie 21.3% / 23.7% / 55.0%.
4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The distribution runs from 55.0% down to 21.3%. Rating separation comes to 187 points. The higher-rated side expects 66.9% of the points; the other side 33.1%. Most likely single result is Trabzonspor on 55.0%. Neither figure is thin: 494 and 544 matches respectively sit behind them. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Played and finished 1-1. Both components point the same way, toward Trabzonspor: 1.24 to 0.85 going forward, 0.93 to 1.12 going back. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +20 and +207. The gap between first and second outcome is 31.3 points, Trabzonspor ahead of the draw. The away side is rated higher. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. The model gives 76.3% to someone winning. Expected goals come out at 1.17 to 1.87. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.5%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.85/1.12 and 1.24/0.93.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor drew 1-1 on 15 August 2026. N. Saviolo opened the scoring in the 43rd minute for Trabzonspor, set up by M. Mimaroglu, to make it 1-0. A. Benedyczak levelled it from the penalty spot 55 minutes into the game for Kasımpaşa to make it 1-1. A. F. Baldursson (10') and M. Ben Ouanes (68') were booked. Kasımpaşa are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form.