Match Report
Gençlerbirliği S.K. edged past Fenerbahçe 2-1 on 15 August 2026. Talisca opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for Fenerbahçe, set up by L. Mercan, to make it 1-0. F. Tongya levelled it in the 37th minute for Gençlerbirliği S.K., set up by S. Koita, to make it 1-1. O. Ulgun put Gençlerbirliği S.K. in front 56 minutes into the game, set up by A. Dursun, to make it 2-1. K. Akturkoglu (58') was booked. Our current Elo ratings make Fenerbahçe clearly the stronger side, by 358 rating points over Gençlerbirliği S.K., even though it was Gençlerbirliği S.K. who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Gençlerbirliği S.K. only a 6.7% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.11 to 3.16.