Across 7 recorded meetings back to 2022 the split is 4-3-0 in Wydad AC's favour on wins, 10-6 on goals. The last was 2026, 4-3 in comp-apf-BOT. The live ratings are 1586 and 1541, giving 53.2% / 24.2% / 22.7%.
Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +86 and +41. Result on the day: 1-2. 53.2% goes to Wydad AC, the model's lean. The underlying rates are near-identical — attack 0.83 against 0.82, defence 0.92 against 0.90. Between best and worst outcome there is 30.5 points of daylight. The model gives 75.9% to someone winning. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 13.5%. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Expected goals 1.11-1.02. First to second is a 29.0-point step, Wydad AC over the draw. The home side is rated higher. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Attack/defence pairs: 0.83/0.92 and 0.82/0.90. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 359 and 120 matches. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 65.3% to 34.7%. 45 points of rating separation.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
UTS Rabat edged past Wydad AC 2-1 at Stade Mohamed V, Casablanca on 5 July 2026. Our current Elo ratings make Wydad AC slightly the stronger side, by 45 rating points over UTS Rabat, even though it was UTS Rabat who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives UTS Rabat only a 22.7% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Wydad AC's current recorded form ends with 7 consecutive defeats. UTS Rabat are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form. UTS Rabat won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 7 meetings without a win.