3 meetings sit in the record, first in 2024, aggregate 2-2. The latest was 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-BOT. Against that, current ratings read 1577 and 1507, a 70-point margin, and the model splits the tie 56.9% / 23.3% / 19.9%.
With 300 and 60 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Most and least likely outcomes are 37.0 points apart. 76.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Rounded, that is 1-0. Ittihad Tanger carries the largest share, 56.9%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. A 33.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. In absolute terms: Ittihad Tanger 0.73/0.74, CODM Meknès 0.67/1.00 on attack and defence. There is no trade-off to weigh: Ittihad Tanger scores at the higher rate (0.73 to 0.67) and concedes at the lower (0.74 to 1.00). Versus the 1500 seed: +77 and +7. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Expected goals sit at 1.08 against 0.67. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. It ended 2-1. The distribution peaks at 1-0, 18.9%, with 0-0 behind it at 17.5%. The rating gap itself is 70 points, which is moderate by the model's standards.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.