Across 7 recorded meetings back to 2016 the split is 3-3-1 in Hassania Agadir's favour on wins, 11-5 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-2 in comp-apf-BOT. History aside, the live ratings of 1513 and 1556 drive a 39.5% / 27.2% / 33.3% distribution.
Result on the day: 1-1. 72.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Between best and worst outcome there is 12.3 points of daylight. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Neither component contradicts the other: Kawkab Marrakech leads 0.70-0.68 forward and 0.70-0.91 back. Hassania Agadir carries the largest share, 39.5%. The higher rating expects 46.8% of the points, the lower 53.2%. Behind them are 302 and 120 rated matches. Hassania Agadir sits 6.2 points above the next most likely result. 43 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Of the individual scorelines, 0-0 carries the most weight at 21.0% — 0-1 is next at 18.1%. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +13 and +56. Expected goals come out at 0.70 to 0.86. The four component numbers read 0.68, 0.91, 0.70, 0.70.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Hassania Agadir and Kawkab Marrakech drew 1-1 on 5 July 2026. H. Ahadad opened the scoring in the 19th minute for Hassania Agadir, set up by A. Ait Brayim, to make it 1-0. S. Cisse levelled it in the 26th minute for Kawkab Marrakech, set up by H. A. Dahmani, to make it 1-1. M. Elabdi (21'), I. Hrila (31') and S. Anrar (45') were booked. Kawkab Marrakech are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form.