Rated 1596 and 1517, these two produce a 58.2% / 23.0% / 18.9% split. Honours split: 0.93 forward for Yacoub El Mansour, 0.81 back for FUS Rabat.
The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Neither figure is thin: 300 and 30 matches respectively sit behind them. 79 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Result on the day: 0-1. Most and least likely outcomes are 39.3 points apart. They have met once on record — 2026, 3-1 in comp-apf-BOT, which is too little history to weigh. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. 58.2% goes to FUS Rabat, the model's lean. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +96 and +17. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Win-or-lose totals 77.1%; the draw takes the rest. Expected goals come out at 1.23 to 1.01. First to second is a 35.2-point step, FUS Rabat over the draw. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 13.2%. Raw profiles are 0.81 and 0.81 against 0.93 and 1.02. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Elo expected shares: 69.6% and 30.4%.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Yacoub El Mansour edged past FUS Rabat 1-0 on 5 July 2026. M. Balouk opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 36th minute for Yacoub El Mansour to make it 1-0. O. Raoui (20'), A. Echchennikh (37') and Z. Fati (51') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make FUS Rabat slightly the stronger side, by 79 rating points over Yacoub El Mansour, even though it was Yacoub El Mansour who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Yacoub El Mansour only a 18.9% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Yacoub El Mansour won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.