1517 against 1567 gives the model nothing to work with: 38.4% / 27.5% / 34.1%.
Played and finished 2-2. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Neither figure is thin: 30 and 270 matches respectively sit behind them. The underlying goal expectation is 1.31 for Yacoub El Mansour, 1.14 for Difaa EL Jadida. Rating separation comes to 50 points. Yacoub El Mansour has the better scoring rate (0.93) and Difaa EL Jadida the better defensive one (0.95). In absolute terms: Yacoub El Mansour 0.93/1.02, Difaa EL Jadida 0.83/0.95 on attack and defence. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 1-2 in comp-apf-BOT. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Difaa EL Jadida's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 47.8%. A 10.9-point range covers every outcome here. Higher rating: the away side. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Yacoub El Mansour leads the distribution by 4.3 points over Difaa EL Jadida. Someone wins 72.5% of the time by this model. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +17 and +67. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.9% leads, but only just.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.