On file: 9 previous meetings dating to 2019, 13-12 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-3 in comp-apf-BOT. Today those sides rate 1547 and 1596, 49 apart, which resolves to 38.7% / 27.4% / 33.9%.
In absolute terms: CR Khemis Zemamra 0.73/0.85, FUS Rabat 0.81/0.81 on attack and defence. As a single number the model says 0-0. 72.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +47 and +96. Rating separation comes to 49 points. A 11.3-point range covers every outcome here. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The higher rating expects 47.7% of the points, the lower 52.3%. 0-0 is the single most probable result at 16.4%, clear of 0-1 on 15.3%. Neither component contradicts the other: FUS Rabat leads 0.81-0.73 forward and 0.81-0.85 back. Top of the distribution: CR Khemis Zemamra, 38.7%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. A 4.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The match finished 1-1. Higher rating: the away side. Expected goals sit at 0.88 against 0.93. With 150 and 300 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.