On record: 19 meetings from 2016, 25-13 on aggregate, 4 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-0 in comp-apf-BOT. Currently 1725 against 1513 — a 74.0% / 18.3% / 7.7% split.
Neither component contradicts the other: Raja Casablanca leads 1.05-0.68 forward and 0.57-0.91 back. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A decisive result carries 81.7% against 18.3% for the draw. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. A 212-point difference on the rating scale. It ended 2-0. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The model's preferred outcome is Raja Casablanca at 74.0%. Raw profiles are 1.05 and 0.57 against 0.68 and 0.91. Elo expected shares: 83.1% and 16.9%. Point estimate: 1-0. The underlying goal expectation is 1.41 for Raja Casablanca, 0.53 for Hassania Agadir. 1-0 is the single most probable result at 20.3%, clear of 0-0 on 14.4%. Spread across the three results is 66.3 points. Versus the 1500 seed: +225 and +13. First to second is a 55.7-point step, Raja Casablanca over the draw. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 336 and 302 matches.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Raja Casablanca beat Hassania Agadir 2-0 at Stade Mohamed V, Casablanca on 2 July 2026. On current ratings the model favours Raja Casablanca at 74% in this pairing, and Raja Casablanca won this one.