One edge each: scoring to Olympique Dcheïra (0.82 v 0.65), conceding to Olympique Safi (0.94 v 0.94). On rating it is 1533 against 1503, which the model resolves to 50.9% / 24.7% / 24.4%.
Someone wins 75.3% of the time by this model. A 26.5-point range top to bottom. Behind them are 32 and 300 rated matches. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The home side is rated higher. Expected goals come out at 1.15 to 0.82. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +33 and +3. Final score: 1-1. 1-0 is the single most probable result at 16.1%, clear of 0-0 on 14.0%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Olympique Dcheïra sits 26.2 points above the next most likely result. Elo expected shares: 63.3% and 36.7%. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 0-0 in comp-apf-BOT. As a single number the model says 1-0. 30 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Olympique Dcheïra carries the largest share, 50.9%. Raw profiles are 0.82 and 0.94 against 0.65 and 0.94.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.