A 298-point edge to Al Hussein, which the model prices at 10.8% / 19.9% / 69.3%.
Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +32 and +330. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The model gives 80.1% to someone winning. Both figures rest on decent samples, 50 and 115 matches. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The xG line reads 0.46 to 2.63. Al Hussein holds both halves of the profile — 1.87 against 0.74 for scoring, 0.42 against 1.04 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Most weight falls on 0-2 at 15.7%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-2. Between best and worst outcome there is 58.5 points of daylight. The leading outcome clears the second by 49.4 points. 298 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. In absolute terms: Pakhtakor 0.74/1.04, Al Hussein 1.87/0.42 on attack and defence. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 20.7% to 79.3%. The model's preferred outcome is Al Hussein at 69.3%. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. The match finished 3-0.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Pakhtakor comfortably beat Al Hussein 3-0 on 11 August 2026. D. Khamdamov opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Pakhtakor, set up by B. Resan, to make it 1-0. D. Khamdamov added to the tally in the 30th minute for Pakhtakor, set up by S. Nasrullaev, to make it 2-0. B. Resan added to the tally 52 minutes into the game for Pakhtakor, set up by Z. Tahseen, to make it 3-0. Z. Tahseen (40') and Flamarion (75') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Al Hussein clearly the stronger side, by 298 rating points over Pakhtakor, even though it was Pakhtakor who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Pakhtakor only a 10.8% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. On current ratings the model puts Pakhtakor at around 0.46 goals in this pairing; they scored 3 here.