1470 plays 1468; the model splits it 46.7% / 25.7% / 27.6%. The edge is split: Gamba Osaka scores at the higher rate (1.21 to 0.80), Gangwon FC concedes at the lower (0.95 to 1.10).
Played and finished 0-1. Gangwon FC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 59.5%. The home side is rated higher. The three results cover 21.0 points. Distance between the ratings: 2 points, narrow on this scale. The gap between first and second outcome is 19.1 points, Gangwon FC ahead of Gamba Osaka. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.31 and 1.56. Its point estimate is 1-1. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.6%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. In absolute terms: Gangwon FC 0.80/0.95, Gamba Osaka 1.21/1.10 on attack and defence. Behind them are 11 and 19 rated matches. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -30 and -32. 46.7% goes to Gangwon FC, the model's lean. The model gives 74.3% to someone winning.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Gamba Osaka edged past Gangwon FC 1-0 on 11 August 2026. G. Nawata opened the scoring in the 103rd minute for Gamba Osaka, set up by R. Yamashita, to make it 1-0. T. Kishimoto (6'), R. Hatsuse (28'), Kim Dae-Won (70'), Lee Gi-Hyuk (89') and Shin Min-Ha (98') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Gamba Osaka only a 27.6% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.