28 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 36-47. The latest was 2026, 0-6 in Major League Soccer. Against that, current ratings read 1352 and 1444, a 92-point margin, and the model splits the tie 32.6% / 27.0% / 40.4%.
No scoreline stands out; 2-2 only leads on 6.4%. Rating separation comes to 92 points. Elo expected shares: 46.1% and 53.9%. The four component numbers read 1.02, 1.74, 1.19, 1.43. Someone wins 73.0% of the time by this model. Point estimate: 2-2. Expected goals sit at 2.16 against 2.78. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 32.9% / 27.1% / 40.0%. The match did not follow it. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 526 and 531 rated matches respectively. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -148 and -56. Most and least likely outcomes are 13.4 points apart. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. 40.4% goes to Portland Timbers, the model's lean. Played and finished 3-3. A 7.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes. There is no trade-off to weigh: Portland Timbers scores at the higher rate (1.19 to 1.02) and concedes at the lower (1.43 to 1.74).
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Sporting Kansas City: two wins and three defeats over five games; 12 goals scored, 11 conceded. Latest: a 2-1 defeat away to Seattle Sounders on 2 October.
Playing away from home against Seattle Sounders (Major League Soccer), Sporting Kansas City finished 1-2 on 2 October. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 27 September: Sporting Kansas City won 2-0 against Houston Dynamo away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring two goals and allowing zero. Against Philadelphia Union in Major League Soccer, Sporting Kansas City scored three and conceded four on 20 September; the at home result was 3-4. Sporting Kansas City's at home game on 13 September (Major League Soccer) ended 3-1 against Los Angeles FC, with three goals for and one against. On 6 September, FC Dallas faced Sporting Kansas City in Major League Soccer: Sporting Kansas City lost 3-4 away from home, having scored three and conceded four.
Portland Timbers's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 12 conceded. San Jose Earthquakes were their latest opponents, away on 27 September: a 3-1 defeat.
Against San Jose Earthquakes in Major League Soccer, Portland Timbers scored one and conceded three on 27 September; the away from home result was 1-3. Portland Timbers's at home game on 20 September (Major League Soccer) ended 0-1 against Atlanta United FC, with zero goals for and one against. On 13 September, FC Dallas faced Portland Timbers in Major League Soccer: Portland Timbers lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. Major League Soccer, 10 September brought a home meeting with St. Louis City; Portland Timbers drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Portland Timbers hosted Minnesota United FC on 6 September (Major League Soccer) and won 5-4; their goals totalled five, compared with four conceded.
Earlier results between these sides included a 6-0 home win for Portland Timbers on 10 May and a 1-0 home win for Portland Timbers on 11 May 2025.
After the match
Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers drew 3-3 at Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City, Kansas on 11 October 2026. David Da Costa opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for Portland Timbers, set up by Ariel Lassiter, to make it 1-0. Vincent Janssen added to the tally from the penalty spot 49 minutes into the game for Portland Timbers to make it 2-0. André Luiz pulled one back 52 minutes into the game for Sporting Kansas City to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Portland Timbers extended the lead through Ariel Lassiter 64 minutes into the game, set up by Jímer Fory, to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Sporting Kansas City reduced the deficit through Justin Reynolds 70 minutes into the game, set up by Taylor Calheira, to make it 2-3. André Luiz levelled it 72 minutes into the game for Sporting Kansas City, set up by Seymour Garfield-Reid, to make it 3-3. Vincent Janssen (12') was booked. five changes were recorded for Sporting Kansas City. The card tally for Portland Timbers was one yellow card. Portland Timbers made five changes.