On record: 11 meetings from 2021, 15-20 on aggregate, 2 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-2 in comp-apf-MLS. The live ratings are 1498 and 1637, giving 26.8% / 25.4% / 47.8%.
Raw profiles are 1.18 and 1.17 against 1.79 and 1.31. Inter Miami's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 60.5%. Spread across the three results is 22.4 points. 47.8% goes to Inter Miami, the model's lean. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -2 and +137. Higher rating: the away side. Inter Miami leads the distribution by 21.0 points over Columbus Crew. The rating gap itself is 139 points, which is wide by the model's standards. A decisive result carries 74.6% against 25.4% for the draw. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 20.0% / 23.3% / 56.6%. The result went the other way. Reduced to one result that is 2-2. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.30 and 2.84. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Played and finished 2-1. Both figures rest on decent samples, 533 and 242 matches. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-2 on 6.3%.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Columbus Crew edged past Inter Miami 2-1 at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, Columbus on 27 September 2026. Josef Martínez opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 28th minute for Columbus Crew to make it 1-0. Lionel Messi levelled it in the 33rd minute for Inter Miami to make it 1-1. Columbus Crew regained the lead through Jamal Thiare in the 98th minute to make it 2-1. Santiago Morales (96') was sent off. 11 players were booked, among them Carlos Henrique Casimiro (27'), Dylan Chambost (38'), Micael dos Santos Silva (67'), Brais Méndez (75'), Eric Bailly (78') and Daniel Pinter (80'). Our current Elo ratings make Inter Miami clearly the stronger side, by 139 rating points over Columbus Crew, even though it was Columbus Crew who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Columbus Crew only a 26.8% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.