Prior record: 8-9-19 across 36 since 2012. Most recent 2026, 3-1 in comp-apf-MLS. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1517 and 1445 — 72 points — for a 57.2% / 23.2% / 19.6% split.
Both components point the same way, toward San Jose Earthquakes: 1.23 to 1.12 going forward, 1.18 to 1.38 going back. Top of the distribution: San Jose Earthquakes, 57.2%. The scoreline spread is even — 2-1 on 7.6% leads, but only just. Expected goals sit at 2.52 against 1.79. The home side is rated higher. In absolute terms: San Jose Earthquakes 1.23/1.18, Portland Timbers 1.12/1.38 on attack and defence. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1. Someone wins 76.8% of the time by this model. No scoreline clear 8% individually. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 72 points. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Final score: 3-1. The distribution runs from 57.2% down to 19.6%. San Jose Earthquakes holds a 34.0-point edge on the next outcome. The higher-rated side expects 68.8% of the points; the other side 31.2%.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
San Jose Earthquakes beat Portland Timbers 3-1 on 27 September 2026. Preston Judd opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for San Jose Earthquakes, set up by Eduard Löwen, to make it 1-0. Eduard Löwen added to the tally in the 24th minute for San Jose Earthquakes, set up by Beau Leroux, to make it 2-0. Preston Judd added to the tally in the 29th minute for San Jose Earthquakes, set up by Paul Marie, to make it 3-0. David Da Costa got one back late on, in the 86th minute for Portland Timbers, set up by Eric Izoita, to make it 1-3. Preston Judd (30'), Reid Roberts (40') and Eric Miller (76') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: San Jose Earthquakes are 72 points stronger than Portland Timbers. On current ratings the model favours San Jose Earthquakes at 57.2% in this pairing, and San Jose Earthquakes won this one. San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Major League Soccer.