On record: 36 meetings from 2012, 58-43 on aggregate, 7 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-4 in comp-apf-MLS. Against that, current ratings read 1506 and 1454, a 52-point margin, and the model splits the tie 54.3% / 23.9% / 21.8%.
The gap between first and second outcome is 30.4 points, Los Angeles Galaxy ahead of the draw. The edge is split: Los Angeles Galaxy scores at the higher rate (1.06 to 0.97), Colorado Rapids concedes at the lower (1.14 to 1.18). Expected goals sit at 1.81 against 1.55. The forecast we stored before the match was 49.0% / 25.1% / 25.8%. It landed. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +6 and -46. 76.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Its point estimate is 1-1. The match finished 3-2. Outcomes span 32.5 points. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Top of the distribution: Los Angeles Galaxy, 54.3%. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 9.7%. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The higher rating expects 66.2% of the points, the lower 33.8%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Los Angeles Galaxy edged past Colorado Rapids 3-2 at Dignity Health Sports Park, Los Angeles on 27 September 2026. Donavan Phillip opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for Colorado Rapids, set up by Joshua Atencio, to make it 1-0. Paxten Aaronson added to the tally in the 39th minute for Colorado Rapids, set up by Rob Holding, to make it 2-0. Reggie Cannon (an own goal) pulled one back 53 minutes into the game for Los Angeles Galaxy to make it 1-2. Klauss levelled it 66 minutes into the game for Los Angeles Galaxy to make it 2-2. Justin Haak put Los Angeles Galaxy in front 74 minutes into the game, set up by Robert Taylor, to make it 3-2. Keegan Rosenberry (10'), Rob Holding (31'), Pablo Ruiz (46') and Joshua Atencio (53') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Los Angeles Galaxy are 52 points stronger than Colorado Rapids.