39 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 48-50. The latest was 2026, 2-0 in comp-apf-MLS. Against that, current ratings read 1511 and 1355, a 156-point margin, and the model splits the tie 67.9% / 20.3% / 11.8%.
67.9% goes to Houston Dynamo, the model's lean. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The forecast we stored before the match was 74.5% / 18.1% / 7.4%. That one did not come off. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Neither side holds both halves — Sporting Kansas City scores at 0.95, Houston Dynamo concedes at 0.86. In absolute terms: Houston Dynamo 0.84/0.86, Sporting Kansas City 0.95/1.72 on attack and defence. Both figures rest on decent samples, 521 and 524 matches. Between best and worst outcome there is 56.1 points of daylight. A 47.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Goal expectation splits 2.14 to 1.11. The higher-rated side expects 78.1% of the points; the other side 21.9%. Final score: 0-2. No scoreline stands out; 2-1 only leads on 9.9%. 156 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Versus the 1500 seed: +11 and -145.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Sporting Kansas City beat Houston Dynamo 2-0 at BBVA Compass Stadium, Houston on 27 September 2026. André Luiz opened the scoring in the 27th minute for Sporting Kansas City, set up by Stephen Afrifa, to make it 1-0. Calvin Harris added to the tally in the 45th minute for Sporting Kansas City, set up by André Luiz, to make it 2-0. Héctor Herrera (48') was sent off. Justin Reynolds (1'), Taylor Calheira (49'), André Luiz (51'), Antônio Carlos (54') and Stephen Afrifa (68') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Houston Dynamo clearly the stronger side, by 156 rating points over Sporting Kansas City, even though it was Sporting Kansas City who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Sporting Kansas City only a 11.8% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.