3 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 2-8. The latest was 2026, 0-5 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1450 against 1534, and the model turns that into 33.6% / 27.3% / 39.1%.
Attack/defence pairs: 0.92/1.23 and 1.31/1.26. Reduced to one result that is 1-2. Played and finished 3-3. A 5.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 33.3% / 27.3% / 39.4%. The match did not follow it. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. 1-2 leads the scorelines at 8.3% — not a strong call. Top of the distribution: San Diego, 39.1%. Expected goals sit at 1.72 against 2.18. The three outcomes sit within 11.8 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. San Diego has the better scoring rate (1.31) and Austin the better defensive one (1.23). By expected share of the points: 47.3% and 52.7%. With 203 and 64 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Someone wins 72.7% of the time by this model. Higher rating: the away side. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -50 and +34.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Austin and San Diego drew 3-3 at Q2 Stadium, Austin on 27 September 2026. Aníbal Godoy opened the scoring 50 minutes into the game for San Diego to make it 1-0. Mikkel Desler (an own goal) added to the tally 57 minutes into the game for San Diego to make it 2-0. Marcus Ingvartsen added to the tally 64 minutes into the game for San Diego, set up by Anders Dreyer, to make it 3-0. Brandon Vazquez got one back 73 minutes into the game for Austin, set up by Ervin Torres, to make it 1-3. Christian Ramirez pulled one back late on, in the 82nd minute for Austin, set up by Jon Bell, to make it 2-3. Christian Ramirez levelled it late on, in the 86th minute for Austin, set up by Jon Gallagher, to make it 3-3. Christian Ramirez (87') was booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: San Diego are 84 points stronger than Austin. Every goal came after the interval. Austin are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Major League Soccer.