On file: 22 previous meetings dating to 2017, 42-21 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-0 in comp-apf-MLS. The present numbers are 1558 against 1478, and the model turns that into 58.3% / 22.9% / 18.8%.
Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 8.8%. The match finished 3-1. Minnesota United FC has the better scoring rate (1.22) and Seattle Sounders the better defensive one (0.92). Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +58 and -22. Attack/defence pairs: 1.10/0.92 and 1.22/1.43. 80 points of rating separation. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. Goal expectation splits 2.33 to 1.51. A decisive result carries 77.1% against 22.9% for the draw. 58.3% goes to Seattle Sounders, the model's lean. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Outcomes span 39.5 points. The gap between first and second outcome is 35.4 points, Seattle Sounders ahead of the draw. The home side is rated higher. The forecast we stored before the match was 50.5% / 24.8% / 24.7%. It landed. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 69.7% to 30.3%. Behind them are 560 and 335 rated matches. As a single number the model says 2-1.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Seattle Sounders beat Minnesota United FC 3-1 at Lumen Field, Seattle on 27 September 2026. Jordan Morris opened the scoring in the 16th minute for Seattle Sounders, set up by Albert Rusnák, to make it 1-0. Hassani Dotson added to the tally in the 35th minute for Seattle Sounders to make it 2-0. Anthony Markanich pulled one back 57 minutes into the game for Minnesota United FC, set up by Bongokuhle Hlongwane, to make it 1-2. Paul Arriola added to the tally late on, in the 83rd minute for Seattle Sounders, set up by Albert Rusnák, to make it 3-1. Jefferson Abel Díaz Beleño (28'), Owen Gene (58'), Hassani Dotson (71') and stuar hawkins (86') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Seattle Sounders are 80 points stronger than Minnesota United FC. On current ratings the model favours Seattle Sounders at 58.3% in this pairing, and Seattle Sounders won this one. Seattle Sounders are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Major League Soccer. Minnesota United FC's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in the 2026 Major League Soccer.