A 26.5% / 25.3% / 48.2% split off ratings of 1449 and 1591. St. Louis City is ahead on each half — 1.42 to 0.94 in attack, 1.00 to 1.26 in defence.
The ratings draw on 538 and 130 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The tie closed out 0-3. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The distribution runs from 48.2% down to 25.3%. First to second is a 21.7-point step, St. Louis City over New York Red Bulls. Point estimate: 1-2. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -51 and +91. The underlying goal expectation is 1.40 for New York Red Bulls, 2.41 for St. Louis City. Raw profiles are 0.94 and 1.26 against 1.42 and 1.00. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 30.6% / 26.5% / 42.9%. That call matched the result. Ratings sit 142 apart. The scoreline spread is even — 1-2 on 9.0% leads, but only just. The away side is rated higher. Most likely single result is St. Louis City on 48.2%. The model gives 74.7% to someone winning.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
St. Louis City comfortably beat New York Red Bulls 3-0 at Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison on 30 September 2026. Rafael Navarro Leal opened the scoring inside the first 5 minutes for St. Louis City, set up by Conrad Wallem, to make it 1-0. Simon Becher added to the tally late on, in the 87th minute for St. Louis City, set up by Christopher Durkin, to make it 2-0. Tomas Ostrak added to the tally in the 91st minute for St. Louis City to make it 3-0. Timo Baumgartl (35') and Emil Forsberg (86') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have St. Louis City 142 points stronger than New York Red Bulls. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. St. Louis City are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Major League Soccer.