9 meetings sit in the record, first in 2022, aggregate 18-18. The latest was 2026, 1-2 in comp-apf-MLS. Currently 1552 against 1558 — a 45.5% / 25.9% / 28.6% split.
Expected goals come out at 2.11 to 1.72. As a single number the model says 2-1. The tie closed out 0-1. 6 points of rating separation. A 16.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. Each side owns one half of the argument — Chicago Fire the scoring rate at 1.28, Charlotte the conceding rate at 0.99. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Top of the distribution: Charlotte, 45.5%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 168 and 495 rated matches respectively. The higher-rated side expects 41.6% of the points; the other side 58.4%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. In absolute terms: Charlotte 1.22/0.99, Chicago Fire 1.28/1.17 on attack and defence. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 8.3%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +52 and +58. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 47.1% / 25.6% / 27.3%. The result went the other way.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Chicago Fire edged past Charlotte 1-0 at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte on 26 September 2026. Luca De La Torre (an own goal) opened the scoring 58 minutes into the game for Chicago Fire to make it 1-0. Tim Ream (98') was sent off. 7 players were booked, among them Sergio Oregel (23'), Djibril Diani (34'), Allan Saint-Maximin (38'), Pep Biel (74'), David Poreba (81') and Ashley Westwood (82'). On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Chicago Fire only a 28.6% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.